FORECASTING THE 2018 OSCARS
Edited by Ariel Landrum
Hello People of Con! It has been months since I have released a movie review for the site. Life can get busy causing various passions to get thrown on the back burner. With that being said, soon I will be able to review movies more frequently, especially now that I’m imbued with the power of MoviePass, allowing me the opportunity to see almost any movie of my choosing.
On this rainy California day I decided to recognize the upcoming 90th Annual Academy Awards with my predictions, which at times may differ from my exclusive opinion, for the winners of each category. I have been fortunate enough that I saw all nine nominated films in the Best Picture category. Of course, some of my picks are pure guesses as I have not seen all the films in each category. In those instances, I will be forthcoming. That being said, let’s get this show on the road!
Best Picture Nominees:
Call Me By Your Name directed by Luca Guadagnino
Darkest Hour directed by Joe Wright
Dunkirk directed by Christopher Nolan
Get Out directed by Jordan Peele
Lady Bird directed by Greta Gerwig
Phantom Thread directed by Paul Thomas Anderson
The Post directed by Steven Spielberg
The Shape of Water directed by Guillermo del Toro
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri directed by Martin McDonagh
My Prediction: The Shape of Water
My Opinion: Dunkirk
The Shape of Water was a bit too strange for my taste. At its simplest form, it is a love story between a woman and a sea creature. Was it a good movie and did I enjoy it? Yes. Will I be mad if it were to win Best Picture? No. Although the story is quite strange, it was a beautifully shot movie and the story did keep me entertained. Throw a great cast in the mix and you have a winner.
I would lobby for Dunkirk to take home the Best Picture prize because, out of all the movies in this category, this is the one movie I was literally on the edge of my seat while watching. I saw it in IMAX and it was an experience I will not forget. Christopher Nolan gave us a chilling encounter of being thrown into the thick of World War II while surrounded by the enemy.
Best Director Nominees:
Christopher Nolan, for Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, for Get Out
Greta Gerwig, for Lady Bird
Paul Thomas Anderson, for Phantom Thread
Guillermo del Toro, for The Shape of Water
My Prediction: Guillermo del Toro
My Opinion: Christopher Nolan
Guillermo del Toro did a fantastic job and he is deserving of the award, I would not be mad if he takes the prize. Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk to me was something special, and Nolan really showed off his directing skills, through the close up of the casts members, to the wide screen shots of the war-zone. Of course, I would be happy with either director taking home the honor.
Best Actor in a Leading Role Nominees:
Timothée Chalamet, for Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya, for Get Out
Gary Oldman, for Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington, for Roman J. Israel, Esq.
My Prediction: Gary Oldman
My Opinion: Gary Oldman
If you have seen The Darkest Hour, you would know that Gary Oldman is a shoe-in for the award. Oldman spent many hours studying Churchill, and that time paid off. Audiences truly saw a transformation on screen. If you haven’t seen the movie yet, do yourself a favor and witness acting on another level.
Best Actress in a Leading Role Nominees:
Sally Hawkins, for The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, for I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, for Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, for The Post
My Prediction: Frances McDormand
My Opinion: Frances McDormand
No surprise here as Frances totally deserves an Academy Award. Her portrayal of a character hellbent for justice is both commanding and admirable. Viewers found themselves rooting for her every step of the way.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role Nominees:
Willem Dafoe, for The Florida Project
Woody Harrelson, for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Richard Jenkins, for The Shape of Water
Christopher Plummer, for All the Money in the World
Sam Rockwell, for Three Billboards
My Opinion: Sam Rockwell
A well known character actor, Rockwell’s portrayal of a Midwestern cop in Three Billboards, angry and full of bigotry, is worthy of an Oscar. Simple as that.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role Nominees:
Mary J. Blige, for Mudbound
Allison Janney, for I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, for Lady Bird
Lesley Manville, for Phantom Thread
Octavia Spencer, for The Shape of Water
My Prediction: Allison Janney
My Opinion: Allison Janney
Janney plays an absolute lunatic in I, Tonya. Both unpredictable and charismatic, if she were somehow to lose this category, her character would do anything possible to steal the Golden Statue from her opponents hands!
Best Animated Feature Film:
The Boss Baby directed by Tom McGrath
The Breadwinner directed by Nora Twomey
Coco Directed directed by Lee UnKrich
Ferdinand the Bull directed by Carlos Saldanha
Loving Vincent directed by Dorota Kobiela and Hugh Welchman
My Prediction: Coco
My Opinion: Coco
With phenomenal animation, a diverse cast, all accompanied with beautiful music, it is mystifying to me as to how Coco got left out of the Best Picture category. This must see movie will turn the waterworks on for anyone.
Best Documentary (Feature):
City of Ghosts by Matthew Heineman
Faces Places by JR, Agnès Varda, and Rosalie Varda
Icarus by Bryan Fogel and Dan Cogan
Jane by Brett Morgen, Bryan Burk, Tony Gerber, and James A. Smith
Strong Island by Yance Ford and Joslyn Barnes
Simply A Guess: Icarus
Best Foreign Language Film:
A Fantastic Woman directed by Sebastián Lelio (Chile)
The Insult directed by Ziad Doueiri (Lebanon)
Loveless Andrey directed by Zvyagintsev (Russia)
On Body and Soul directed by Ildiko Enyedi (Hungary)
The Square directed by Ruben Ostlund (Sweden)
Simply A Guess: The Square
Best Original Screenplay:
The Big Sick written by Emily V. Gordon & Kumail Nanjiani
Get Out written by Jordan Peele
I, Tonya written by Steven Rogers
Lady Bird written by Greta Gerwig
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri written by Martin McDonagh
My Prediction: Get Out written by Jordan Peele
My Opinion: Lady Bird written by Greta Gerwig
To me, Get Out was just okay. I never understood why people made a big deal of it (or why it is up for Best Picture). It was strange, and I couldn’t pinpoint it as scary or funny. I do understand that it was made to confuse the audience, creating uncomfortable laughter with the horror, but it completely missed the mark for me.
Lady Bird, on the other hand, spoke to me on many levels. This diamond in the rough reminded me of my years growing up Catholic, and attending Catholic school. Greta Gerwig depicted this experience authenticity, painting a real picture of the Catholic school culture. The relatability and the realism are why I believe Lady Bird should win Best Original Screenplay.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Call Me by Your Name by James Ivory
The Disaster Artist by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Logan by Scott Frank, James Mangold, and Michael Green
Molly’s Game by Aaron Sorkin
Mudbound by Virgil Williams and Dee Rees
My Prediction: Call Me By Your Name by James Ivory
Simply A Guess with My Opinion: The Disaster Artist by Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber
Admittedly this is a sheer guess as I did not read of any of the books these films are modeled after. The Disaster Artist as a movie, however, was one of the better experiences I had in theaters. The script had me in hysterics. When you can develop a great picture out of a movie that was historically known to be unabashedly trash, then you know it is something special!
Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049
Bruno Delbonnel for Darkest Hour
Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk
Rachel Morrison for Mudbound
Dan Laustsen for The Shape of Water
My Prediction: Roger Deakins for Blade Runner 2049
My Opinion: Hoyte van Hoytema for Dunkirk
Blade Runner 2049 was just as boring as the original movie. Sorry to rile some feathers. The movie was shot pretty much in the same fashion and many people (somehow) love the style, which I’m sure is why it will win. I believe Dunkirk was far more superior with their cinematic representation of war, which is why I am rooting for an upset here.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour
Deboray Lamia Denaver, Adruitha Lee for I, Tonya
Naomi Bakstad, Robert A. Pandini, Arjen Tuiten for Wonder
My Prediction: Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour
My Opinion: Ivana Primorac, Kazuhiro Tsuji, David Malinowski, Lucy Sibbick for Darkest Hour
Take a look at Gary Oldman, then take a look at Winston Churchill, then back at Oldman, and finally back at Churchill. I rest my case.
Best Production Design:
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer for Beauty and the Beast
Dennis Gassner and Alessandra Querzola for Blade Runner 2049
Sarah Greenwood and Katie Spencer for Darkest Hour
Rick Carter and Rena DeAngelo for The Post
Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, and Shane Vieau for The Shape of Water
My Prediction: Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, and Shane Vieau for The Shape of Water
My Opinion: Paul D. Austerberry, Jeffrey A. Melvin, and Shane Vieau for The Shape of Water
The production design team for The Shape of Water absolutely nails the look of the Cold War Era. This is enhanced with the visual filter of teal (not green) hues and meticulous choices for characters and set. The look of the entire movie is absolutely stunning.
Best Film Editing:
Jonathan Amos and Paul Machliss for Baby Driver
Lee Smith for Dunkirk
Tatiana S. Riegel for I, Tonya
Sidney Wolinsky for The Shape of Water
Jon Gregory for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
My Prediction: Lee Smith for Dunkirk
My Opinion: Lee Smith for Dunkirk
I choose Lee Smith for Dunkirk for the editing category as each scene flows into the next seamlessly. The engaging story is enhanced by the tightly wound visual transitions.
Best Sound Editing:
Julian Slater for Baby Driver
Mark Mangini and Theo Green for Blade Runner 2049
Alex Gibson and Richard King for Dunkirk
Nathan Robitaille for The Shape of Water
Ren Klyce and Matthew Wood for Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My Prediction: Alex Gibson and Richard King for Dunkirk
My Opinion: Alex Gibson and Richard King for Dunkirk
I’m sure us fellow nerds want Star Wars: The Last Jedi to win any Oscar, and with such a nostalgic movie score it would make sense that they are nominated in the Best Sound Editing category. I don’t believe the Academy has the same passion in the franchise the way the fans do, so I’m going with my favorite, Dunkirk. Alex Gibson and Richard King for knocked it out of the park with realism in the sound quality and the riveting music that accompanies it.
Best Sound Mixing:
Mary H. Ellis, Julian Slater, and Tim Cavagin for Baby Driver
Mac Ruth, Ron Bartlett, and Doug Hephill for Blade Runner 2049
Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, and Gary A. Rizzo for Dunkirk
Glen Gauthier, Christian Cooke, and Brad Zoern for The Shape of Water
Stuart Wilson, Ren Klyce, David Parker, and Michael Semanick for Star Wars: The Last Jedi
My Prediction: Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, and Gary A. Rizzo for Dunkirk
My Opinion: Mark Weingarten, Gregg Landaker, and Gary A. Rizzo for Dunkirk
No surprise here. Also no further explanation is necessary.
Best Visual Effects:
John Nelson, Paul Lambert, Richard R. Hoover, and Gerd Nefzer for Blade Runner 2049
Andrew Jackson, Andrew Lockley, Scott Fisher, Paul Corbould Okja Erik-Jan De Boer, Stephen Clee, Lee Jeon Hyoung, and Joon Hyung Kim for Dunkirk
Ben Morris, Mike Mulholland, Chris Corbould, and Neal Scanlon for Star Wars: The Last Jedi
Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, and Joel Whist for War for the Planet of the Apes
My Prediction: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, and Joel Whist for War For the Planet of the Apes
My Opinion: Joe Letteri, Dan Lemmon, Daniel Barrett, and Joel Whist for War For the Planet of the Apes
War For the Planet of the Apes was one great movie that got stiffed in a ton of these categories. The visual effects of watching an Ape speak created a believably that none of the other movies could top. This technical marvel was a wonder to watch and deserves to win this category.
Best Music (Original Song):
“Mighty River” from Mudbound by Mary J. Blige, Raphael Saadiq, and Taura Stinson
“Mystery of Love” from Call Me by Your Name by Sufjan Stevens
“This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
“Remember Me” from Coco by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
“Stand Up for Something” from Marshall by Diane Warren and Common
My Prediction: “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
My Opinion: “This Is Me” from The Greatest Showman by Benj Pasek and Justin Paul
The Greatest Showman was a magical musical that had memorable songs sung by a talented cast. "This is Me" is an empowering song about self-acceptance and accomplishment, is a song that is truly deserving of The Statue.
Best Original Score:
Dario Marianelli for Darkest Hour
Hans Zimmer for Dunkirk
Jonny Greenwood for Phantom Thread
John Williams for The Post
Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water
My Prediction: Alexandre Desplat for The Shape of Water
My Opinion: Carter Burwell for Three Billboards (somehow not nominated)
The Shape of Water had a decent score but I don’t think it held a candle to the haunting sounds created by Carter Burwell for Three Billboards. Throughout the entire movie, the musical sounds created depth that added to the viewing experience. The Academy is truly crazy for not including this movie.
Best Short Film (Animated):
Dear Basketball directed by Glen Keane and Kobe Bryant
Lou directed by Dave Mullins and Dana Murray
Negative Space directed by Max Porter and Ru Kawahata
Garden Party directed by Victor Caire and Gabriel Graperon
Revolting Rhymes directed by Jakob Schuh and Jan Lachauer
Simply A Guess: Dear Basketball
I’m choosing this flick only because I am a Kobe fan.
Best Short Film (Live Action):
Dekalb Elementary directed by Reed Van Dyk
The Eleven O’Clock directed by Derin Seale and Josh Lawson
My Nephew Emmett directed by Kevin Wilson Jr.
Watu Wote / All of Us directed by Katja Benrath and Tobias Rosen
The Silent Child directed by Chris Overton and Rachel Shenton
Simply A Guess: Dekalb Elementary
My Nephew Emmett might win because of its subject matter but, I am a UCLA fan so I’m going with Dekalb Elementary.
Best Costume Design:
Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast
Ellen Mirojnick for The Greatest Showman
Alexandra Byrne for Murder on the Orient Express
Mark Bridges for Phantom Thread
Luis Sequeira for The Shape of Water
My Prediction: Mark Bridges for The Phantom Thread
My Opinion: Jacqueline Durran for Beauty and the Beast
Mark Bridges for The Phantom Thread is deserving of this award due to the intricate dress designs scattered throughout the film. The costumes appeared to be meticulously made for each scene. It was a feast for the eyes. Beauty and the Beast had a wide variety of alluring designs for the entire cast, however, so this film may steal the laurels instead.
Best Documentary Short:
Edith+Eddie by Laura Checkoway and Thomas Lee Wright
Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405 by Frank Steifel
Heroin(e) by Elaine McMillion Sheldon and Kerrin Sheldon
Knife Skills by Thomas Lennon
Traffic Stop by Kate Davis and David Heilbroner
Simply A Guess: Heroin(e)
That is it for the 2018 Oscars! If you have managed to make it this far, I thank you. Let me know what your predictions are and why!
Follow Billy M. on Twitter: @TheMovieGrader